The way the tournament is set up, every team has a chance to reach the semifinals. Even though India has won all six of their matches, India not in semi-final hasn’t secured their spot in the semifinals yet. This is because of the tournament format where each team plays against every other team in the group stage, leading to many games and a crowded middle of the table. Even England, who are at the bottom of the table with only 2 points and three games left to play, still has a slim chance of making it to the top four.
World Cup reaches its critical stage, let’s see how each team is positioned in the race for the semifinals.
So, what’s the magic number? To be absolutely sure of a semifinal spot, a team needs 14 points. Having 12 points can also get you in, but you might need some help. India, South Africa, New Zealand, and Australia have the opportunity to control their fate and make it to the semifinals.
India:
Played 6 matches and earned 12 points For India, winning just one of their remaining three matches will guarantee them a spot in the semifinals. This is because no team outside the top 4 will be able to match their total of 14 points. Even if they lose all three matches, they can still qualify, provided Afghanistan, which has a chance of reaching 12 points, doesn’t surpass them based on net run rate (NRR).
South Africa:
Played 6 matches and accumulated 10 points South Africa has three games left against New Zealand, Afghanistan, and India. To secure their spot in the top 4, they need to win two more games. Even just one more win could do the trick, but only if the teams currently in the 5th to 8th spots on the points table lose their remaining matches. If South Africa loses all three of their remaining games, they could miss out on the semifinals.
New Zealand:
Played 6 matches and gathered 8 points Two consecutive losses have set them back, but if they win two of their remaining three matches against South Africa, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, they can advance to the next stage. If they lose two of those matches, especially against Pakistan and Sri Lanka, they will be in a challenging position. Winning one of those games might still be enough for them to make it.
Australia:
Played 6 matches; Earned 8 points Similar to New Zealand, Australia needs to win at least two more matches to secure a spot in the semifinals. They have relatively easier opponents in their next games, facing England, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh. A victory against their arch-rivals would also eliminate England from the competition. If Australia wins just one of the three games, it might come down to the net run rate (NRR) as 10 points alone might not be sufficient.
What about the other teams? Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and even the Netherlands still have a shot at making it to the top 4. If Afghanistan manages to win all three of their remaining matches and reaches 12 points, they’ll have a solid chance. Sri Lanka and Pakistan could also secure a place in the top 4 if they win all three of their remaining matches, resulting in 10 points each, as can the Netherlands.
In the most complex scenario imaginable, where Australia and New Zealand win only one match going forward, Pakistan and Sri Lanka win all three, India not in semi-final, Afghanistan wins two out of three, and South Africa loses all three, six teams could potentially finish with 10 points.
